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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 88

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(:23) 5-J.Townsend punts 48 yards to KC 40, Center-47-T.Sieg. 10-T.Hill to KC 43 for 3 yards (86-L.Smith). PENALTY on KC-12-G.Dieter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 43.

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.05 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 88, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 46, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model