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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 41

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 5-J.Townsend punts 40 yards to KC 1, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.90 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model