4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 46

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 5-J.Townsend punts 38 yards to KC 8, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.55 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model