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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 35

Kansas City Chiefs 35 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (Shotgun) 31-Dar.Williams up the middle to LV 33 for 2 yards (42-K.Joseph; 59-T.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.19 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model