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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 35 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:16) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass incomplete short right to 12-G.Dieter.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.90 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.63 EP