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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 12

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 9-R.Gould 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-C.Holba, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.19 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 12, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP