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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(13:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SF 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-59-M.Kiser.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.33 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model