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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 4 at the 47
Los Angeles Rams 48 – San Francisco 49ers 24
What Actually Happened
(2:43) 42-J.Kelly left end to LA 49 for -4 yards (38-A.Exum, 98-R.Blair).
The Three Options
GO
-0.73 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.82 EP
- 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.23 EP
KICK
-0.96 EP
- 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
- 64% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT
-0.95 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.95 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
