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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 14 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SF 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-41-M.Christian, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at SF 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.89 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 31, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model