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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.27 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP