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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 23

Los Angeles Chargers 12 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-Z.Smith), Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.86 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model