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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 15

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 12

What Actually Happened

(8:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.19 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model