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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 12 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(7:06) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 11 yards to LAC 40, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-51-K.Emanuel. Partially blocked by Allen

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model