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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 1

Los Angeles Chargers 12 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(14:58) 68-T.Scott reported in as eligible. 28-M.Gordon left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 1, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model