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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 86

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:16) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 31 yards to BAL 45, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.79 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 86, worth -4.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 44, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model