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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 29

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(9:14) (Field Goal formation) 4-M.Badgley 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.54 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 39, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model