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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 45

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(4:55) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.89 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -1.73 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP