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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree to LAC 1 for 6 yards (37-J.Addae). Baltimore challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.15 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model