Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Baltimore Ravens 17

(:54) (Punt formation) 5-D.Jones punts 41 yards to BAL 34, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +0.45 EP
59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -2.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model