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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:35) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to LAC 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to BAL 42 for 33 yards (4-S.Koch; 41-A.Levine Sr.).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.01 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model