4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(14:25) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 59 yards to LAC 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 20-D.King to LAC 10 for 4 yards (10-C.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.17 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP