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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(7:05) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.11 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 9, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP