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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 40

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(3:17) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model