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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 24

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.52 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 34, worth -1.66 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model