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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 71

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(13:31) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to DAL 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin to DAL 29 for 9 yards (28-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model