4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 47

Seattle Seahawks 6 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(8:04) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to DAL 2, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-28-J.Coleman.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.72 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model