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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(7:30) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 47 yards to DAL 30, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 37 for 7 yards (28-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.27 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 77, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model