Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

(2:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to SEA 27, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-35-K.Frazier.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.36 EP
65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model