Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to DAL 20, Center-69-T.Ott. 10-T.Austin for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.64 EP
66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model