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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 18

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 4-G.Zuerlein 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.89 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model