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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 20 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to LA 13, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model