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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 13

New Orleans Saints 20 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 3-W.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.44 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model