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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 10

New Orleans Saints 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 10, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP