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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 73

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(5:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to NO 32, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.40 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 73, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 31, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model