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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 47

New England Patriots 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 6-R.Allen punts 32 yards to KC 15, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.97 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 47, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.63 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 13, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP