Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 92

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – New England Patriots 14

(7:48) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to 50, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Edelman to KC 37 for 13 yards (30-C.West).

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.16 EP
69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 92, worth -5.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model