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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 28 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(8:35) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 56 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by BAL-28-J.Bethel at MIA 10. 28-J.Bethel to MIA 10 for no gain (19-J.Grant).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP