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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 3 – Baltimore Ravens 35

What Actually Happened

(4:31) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 52 yards to BAL 21, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.79 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 31, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model