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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 70

Baltimore Ravens 35 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 41-A.Levine. 41-A.Levine up the middle to MIA 10 for 60 yards (19-J.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.42 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model