Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 67

Miami Dolphins 10 – Baltimore Ravens 49

(5:55) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 51 yards to BAL 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
75% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model