Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 60

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 6

(14:15) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.48 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model