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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 16 at the 42

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to BUF 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.48 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 42, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.50 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model