4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 36

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 37, RECOVERED by NYJ-57-C.Mosley at NYJ 37. 57-C.Mosley to NYJ 37 for no gain (85-L.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.35 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model