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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 57

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 4-L.Edwards punts 39 yards to BUF 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.49 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 57, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model