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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 56

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:49) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to BUF 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.02 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model