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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Jets 16 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 26-L.Bell left guard to NYJ 35 for 1 yard (97-J.Phillips, 21-J.Poyer).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -2.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 24, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model