Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 60

New York Jets 16 – Buffalo Bills 17

(1:17) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 82-J.Crowder (55-J.Hughes). Penalty on NYJ-68-K.Beachum, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

What Happened

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.44 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 60, worth -2.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.55 EP