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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 18 at the 40

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(6:19) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to NYJ 5, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.35 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model