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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 61

Cincinnati Bengals 10 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to SEA 23, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 20, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP