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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 81

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(11:56) 4-M.Dickson punts 60 yards to CIN 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 30 for 9 yards (88-W.Dissly).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.81 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 38, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model